According to the latest research from TrendForce, global AI server shipments in 2024 are expected to benefit from strong demand from CSPs and OEMs, with an annual growth rate of 46%. International circumstances, DeepSeek effect, and the supply chain management progress of NVIDIA's GB200/GB300 Rack will become variables affecting AI server shipments in 2025. Accordingly, TrendForce has proposed three forecast scenarios

The first scenario is the base case, which is deemed to have the highest probability of occurrence. Recently, major CSP providers like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google have announced increases in their capital expenditures for cloud or AI infrastructure this year, with an average annual growth expected to exceed 30%, which will support the demand for AI servers. Additionally, there are currently no significant changes in the supply chain's assessment of total AI server shipments for the year, in this scenario, TrendForce estimates that global AI server shipments are expected to see an annual increase of nearly 28% in 2025. However, if this year's shipments of GB200/GB300 Rack encounter challenges, CSPs and other end customers may prioritize demand for HGX, MGX, and other models, or invest in their own ASIC infrastructure.

The second scenario is the worse case, which is estimated to have an annual growth for total AI server shipments between 20% and 25%. TrendForce states that this estimate is based on three major considerations: first, the impact of changes in international circumstances on AI chips is expanding; second, NVIDIA's GB Rack plan is more complex in design, with most shipments expected in the second half of 2025, and GB300 is expected to launch around the same time, as it has higher specifications, it will extend the testing and verification period for the overall server rack system. Lastly, the DeepSeek effect may lead customers to reduce their dependence on high-end AI solutions.