According to the latest research by TrendForce, global AI server shipments in 2024 will benefit from strong demand from CSP and OEM, with an expected annual increase of 46%. Factors such as the international situation, the DeepSeek effect, and the supply chain adjustments of NVIDIA's GB200/GB300 racks will influence AI server shipments in 2025, leading TrendForce to propose three scenario forecasts.

The first is the base case scenario, which is considered the most likely to occur. Recently, major CSP players, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, announced plans to increase their capital expenditures on cloud or AI infrastructure this year, with an expected average annual growth of over 30%, which will support the demand momentum for AI servers. Additionally, there has been no significant change in the supply chain's assessment of the overall AI server shipments for the year. In this scenario, TrendForce predicts that global AI server shipments in 2025 are expected to increase by nearly 28% year-on-year. However, if the shipments of GB200/GB300 racks encounter challenges this year, end customers such as CSPs may prioritize ordering HGX, MGX, and other models or lay out their own ASIC infrastructure.

The second scenario, a worse-case scenario, estimates that the annual growth in overall AI server shipments will be between 20% and 25%. TrendForce indicated that this estimate is based on three considerations: First, the impact of changes in the international situation on AI chips is expanding; second, NVIDIA's GB rack plan is more complex in design, with the bulk of shipments expected to fall in the second half of 2025, while the GB300 is expected to be launched at the same time, making the testing and validation period for the overall server rack system longer due to higher specifications. Finally, the DeepSeek effect could lead customers to reduce their reliance on advanced AI solutions.