According to the latest research from TrendForce, the global AI server shipment volume in 2024 is expected to benefit from strong demand from CSP and OEM, with an annual increase of 46%. International situations, the DeepSeek effect, and the supply chain readiness of NVIDIA's GB200/GB300 Rack will become variables affecting the shipment volume of AI servers in 2025. TrendForce presents three forecast scenarios based on this.

The first is the base case scenario, which has the highest probability of occurrence. Recently, major CSP players such as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google announced an expansion of their capital expenditure on cloud or AI infrastructure this year, with an average annual growth rate expected to exceed 30%, supporting the demand momentum for AI servers. Additionally, there has been no significant change in the supply chain's assessment of the overall AI server shipment volume for the year. In this scenario, TrendForce estimates that the global AI server shipment volume in 2025 is expected to increase by nearly 28% year-on-year. However, if this year’s GB200/GB300 Rack shipments face challenges, end customers like CSP may prioritize the procurement of HGX, MGX models, or build their own ASIC infrastructure.

The second most likely scenario is the worse case, estimating the overall AI server shipment volume growth year-on-year to be between 20% and 25%. TrendForce indicates that this forecast is based on three major considerations: first, the impact of international situation changes on AI chips is widening; secondly, NVIDIA's GB Rack solution is relatively complex in design, resulting in a large portion of shipments being deferred to the second half of 2025. The GB300 is expected to launch around the same time, and due to its higher specifications, the testing and verification period for the overall server rack system will also be prolonged. Lastly, the DeepSeek effect may lead customers to reduce their reliance on high-end AI solutions.